Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3568 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–31%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3568 MIA 09:55 → PNS 10:56 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3566 MIA 18:04 → PNS 19:03 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3568 Envoy	MIA 09:55	PNS 10:56	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 4109 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 23:08	PNS 23:59	21%	4%	1.4%	83%
MQ 3566 Envoy	MIA 18:04	PNS 19:03	31%	8%	4.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON