Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 983 at 21:09, with a 38% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 983 American Flight history →	MIA 21:09	RIC 23:37	38%	12%	1.4%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129	3h 34m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → RIC 14:35AA 5843 · flown by Piedmont	7h 50m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650	5h 56m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → RIC 14:12DL 3152	7h 02m	98%	83%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	1h 21m Houston	IAH 12:03 → RIC 16:11UA 4057 · flown by Mesa	7h 23m	93%	81%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → EWR 11:54UA 408	3h 31m Newark	EWR 15:25 → RIC 17:08UA 3639 · flown by Republic	8h 20m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 23:33 → RIC 01:11 +1DL 1175	7h 11m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 15:45 → RIC 17:26DL 1214	6h 46m	96%	73%
American Details →	MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:20AA 3004	55m Charlotte	CLT 09:15 → RIC 10:36AA 5119 · flown by PSA	4h 12m	85%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MIA 11:22 → EWR 14:25UA 2433	1h 00m Newark	EWR 15:25 → RIC 17:08UA 3639 · flown by Republic	5h 46m	70%	55%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 20:12 → RIC 21:54DL 1426	5h 03m	70%	48%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:15DL 1332	57m Atlanta	ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348	4h 41m	63%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON