tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:20, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3010 American MIA 20:12 SAN 22:34 43% 14% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 10h 08m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 35m Houston IAH 14:17 → SAN 15:39UA 1114 9h 51m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 30m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 10h 18m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:36 → SEA 10:53DL 506 1h 21m Seattle SEA 12:14 → SAN 15:16DL 2572 10h 40m 87% 68%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:28 → PHX 09:23AA 1983 1h 17m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → SAN 12:06AA 2122 7h 38m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:12DL 924 9h 32m 96% 68%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:20AA 3004 2h 55m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → SAN 13:05AA 466 9h 41m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 3h 30m Detroit DTW 20:23 → SAN 22:01DL 700 11h 23m 98% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323 54m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → SAN 21:16DL 819 7h 25m 51% 33%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:45 → DEN 18:24UA 2852 56m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 8h 01m 48% 27%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:00 → ORD 19:53AA 3056 1h 00m Chicago ORD 20:53 → SAN 23:31AA 2994 9h 31m 47% 18%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON