tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 1468 at 20:08, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1468 American Flight history → MIA 20:08 SAT 22:24 36% 12% 1.2% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 28m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864 1h 52m Newark EWR 12:03 → SAT 15:04UA 515 8h 57m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 44m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 10h 18m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 7h 50m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:28 → PHX 09:23AA 1983 3h 08m Phoenix PHX 12:31 → SAT 16:57AA 570 10h 29m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465 7h 31m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:34 → SAT 11:51AA 413 7h 26m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:24 → SAT 13:47AA 2768 7h 47m 99% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:23 → DFW 17:36AA 1824 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:27 → SAT 19:45AA 2368 5h 22m 58% 32%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:36 → DFW 19:42AA 2828 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:48 → SAT 22:00AA 1406 5h 24m 57% 29%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 1h 05m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394 7h 47m 58% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON