tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 647 at 21:05, with a 42% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 647 American Flight history → MIA 21:05 SDF 23:42 42% 16% 1.0% 55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 5h 51m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy 7h 23m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387 1h 41m New York LGA 11:05 → SDF 13:27DL 5637 · flown by Republic 7h 02m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:20AA 3004 1h 38m Charlotte CLT 09:58 → SDF 11:32AA 5145 · flown by PSA 5h 08m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 2h 52m Detroit DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic 7h 34m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 5h 02m 90% 75%
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055 1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:55 → SDF 18:04AA 3629 · flown by Envoy 7h 04m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624 6h 26m 94% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:08 → SDF 15:19AA 2813 6h 19m 75% 48%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323 59m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → SDF 21:18DL 3093 4h 27m 53% 38%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:23 → DFW 17:36AA 1824 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:27 → SDF 21:48AA 2212 6h 25m 53% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON