Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 506 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 506 MIA 07:36 → SEA 10:53 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time Riskiest AS 305 MIA 18:20 → SEA 22:00 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 506 Delta Flight history →	MIA 07:36	SEA 10:53	21%	6%	1.0%	60%
AA 3252 American Flight history →	MIA 20:35	SEA 00:07	35%	11%	1.1%	64%
AS 305 Alaska Flight history →	MIA 18:20	SEA 22:00	42%	12%	2.5%	69%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 13m	95%	81%
United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	1h 31m Denver	DEN 11:31 → SEA 13:35UA 2058	8h 58m	96%	70%
American Details →	MIA 07:28 → PHX 09:23AA 1983	1h 07m Phoenix	PHX 10:30 → SEA 13:41AA 2208	9h 13m	91%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON