Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1257 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–49%.

Safest bet that day UA 1257 MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 590 MIA 16:41 → SFO 19:52 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1257 United Flight history →	MIA 08:00	SFO 11:03	20%	7%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
AA 2753 American Flight history →	MIA 07:15	SFO 10:20	21%	7%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
AA 2347 American	MIA 20:50	SFO 23:55	43%	13%	1.1%	no record
UA 2810 United Flight history →	MIA 16:45	SFO 20:09	46%	17%	1.8%	22%
AA 590 American	MIA 16:41	SFO 19:52	49%	20%	2.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 33m	95%	71%
United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	1h 21m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	8h 27m	94%	70%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	1h 55m Houston	IAH 12:37 → SFO 14:43UA 2611	8h 55m	97%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON