Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3033 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 3033 MIA 06:45 → SJU 09:31 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1689 MIA 18:13 → SJU 20:54 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3033 American	MIA 06:45	SJU 09:31	11%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1341 American Flight history →	MIA 08:20	SJU 11:04	15%	6%	0.9%	86%
F9 2284 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 08:01	SJU 10:50	19%	9%	1.4%	77%
AA 1613 American Flight history →	MIA 11:11	SJU 13:58	25%	10%	1.9%	85%worse than usual
F9 3378 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 23:27	SJU 02:18	27%	17%	1.7%	71%
AA 967 American Flight history →	MIA 13:03	SJU 15:48	35%	14%	2.3%	60%
AA 1689 American Flight history →	MIA 18:13	SJU 20:54	40%	15%	2.5%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON