tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 07:37, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 22% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:56UA 1707 10h 19m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:35 → SNA 10:50AA 1939 8h 25m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:28 → PHX 09:23AA 1983 1h 41m Phoenix PHX 11:04 → SNA 12:31AA 1656 8h 03m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 51m Houston IAH 12:33 → SNA 14:20UA 1533 8h 32m 93% 71%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03UA 1257 1h 28m San Francisco SFO 12:31 → SNA 14:20UA 2441 9h 20m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:46 → SNA 13:03AA 1933 9h 03m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227 3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:45 → SNA 16:02AA 2659 10h 02m 99% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:27 → SNA 09:43AA 2114 7h 18m 68% 53%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 9h 09m 37% 19%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:45 → DEN 18:24UA 2852 46m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 7h 55m 22% 14%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON