tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 4071 at 22:54, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4071 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MIA 22:54 SRQ 23:59 27% 8% 3.1% 85%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 13:43 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115 7h 02m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387 1h 04m New York LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412 7h 08m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 6h 45m 94% 72%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → SRQ 17:13DL 3109 6h 33m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 6h 01m 90% 65%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:20AA 3004 56m Charlotte CLT 09:16 → SRQ 11:10AA 1452 4h 46m 85% 64%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297 3h 19m Charlotte CLT 19:07 → SRQ 21:02AA 2604 7h 32m 97% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 55m Atlanta ATL 13:43 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115 4h 42m 70% 57%
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 4h 52m 57% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON