Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3460 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 3460 MIA 05:15 → STL 07:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3277 MIA 19:10 → STL 21:04 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3460 Southwest	MIA 05:15	STL 07:10	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 477 American	MIA 11:17	STL 13:14	28%	8%	2.1%	no record
AA 1594 American Flight history →	MIA 20:54	STL 22:54	40%	12%	1.3%	61%
WN 3277 Southwest	MIA 19:10	STL 21:04	45%	11%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON