Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1977 at 08:13 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 1977 MIA 08:13 → TPA 09:25 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1921 MIA 20:48 → TPA 21:57 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1977 American	MIA 08:13	TPA 09:25	14%	6%	1.3%	no record
MQ 4122 Envoy	MIA 18:16	TPA 19:33	32%	10%	2.9%	no record
MQ 4093 Envoy	MIA 16:22	TPA 17:50	32%	11%	3.5%	no record
AA 1714 American Flight history →	MIA 23:13	TPA 00:19	35%	11%	1.0%	71%
AA 1980 American	MIA 12:55	TPA 14:06	36%	15%	5.8%	no record
AA 1921 American Flight history →	MIA 20:48	TPA 21:57	40%	13%	1.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON