tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 12:29, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Tulsa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 12:29 → IAH 14:23UA 470 2h 07m Houston IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa 6h 39m 90% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 56m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 53m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 27m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:20AA 3004 3h 05m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → TUL 13:01AA 2657 7h 37m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216 2h 46m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 7h 22m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 6h 13m 94% 74%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:37 → TUL 11:54AA 2352 7h 29m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043 7h 28m 97% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:10 → TUL 15:27AA 2851 5h 27m 60% 39%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:15DL 1332 46m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 4h 52m 46% 33%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:36 → DFW 19:42AA 2828 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:49 → TUL 22:11AA 2014 5h 35m 57% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON