tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 2716 at 21:45, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2716 American Flight history → MIA 21:45 TYS 23:59 34% 11% 1.2% 43%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 5h 10m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148 6h 28m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:15 → CLT 10:26AA 361 3h 58m Charlotte CLT 14:24 → TYS 15:42AA 5831 · flown by Piedmont 7h 27m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → TYS 13:16DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor 6h 09m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:40 → TYS 12:53AA 2544 7h 28m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:20AA 3004 55m Charlotte CLT 09:15 → TYS 10:38AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont 4h 14m 85% 74%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571 6h 36m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072 7h 01m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216 54m Houston IAH 19:50 → TYS 23:12UA 6206 · flown by Mesa 6h 19m 55% 40%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:23 → DFW 17:36AA 1824 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:29 → TYS 21:43AA 5346 · flown by PSA 6h 20m 58% 39%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:36 → DFW 19:42AA 2828 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:41 → TYS 23:51AA 1081 6h 15m 50% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON