Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 4300 at 23:10, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4300 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 23:10	VPS 23:59	21%	5%	1.5%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	5h 29m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	6h 40m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170	6h 20m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 29m	94%	75%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460	7h 03m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:15DL 1332	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	5h 30m	90%	72%
American Details →	MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227	1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501	6h 43m	93%	63%
American Details →	MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 21:08 → VPS 21:50AA 2197	6h 49m	94%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON