Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, YX 4518 at 00:15, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 4518 Republic	MIA 00:15	XNA 02:17	14%	4%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575	3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:35 → XNA 13:58AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	7h 58m	99%	81%
American Details →	MIA 08:57 → LGA 12:00AA 605	1h 56m New York	LGA 13:56 → XNA 16:20AA 4472 · flown by Republic	8h 23m	96%	79%
American Details →	MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 11:41 → XNA 13:34AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	7h 54m	98%	76%
American Details →	MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129	50m Philadelphia	PHL 10:28 → XNA 12:31AA 5543 · flown by PSA	6h 46m	90%	75%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 15:47 → XNA 16:48DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	7h 08m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 23:03 → XNA 00:04 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	7h 04m	94%	73%
American Details →	MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:20AA 3004	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 09:24 → XNA 10:55AA 5327 · flown by PSA	5h 31m	87%	73%
American Details →	MIA 16:53 → DFW 19:14AA 3259	3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:30 → XNA 23:47AA 3693 · flown by Envoy	7h 54m	98%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → XNA 22:15DL 5159 · flown by Endeavor	5h 15m	61%	44%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:15DL 1332	59m Atlanta	ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05DL 2771	4h 53m	61%	41%
American Details →	MIA 18:52 → ORD 21:19AA 2194	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → XNA 00:27 +1AA 3941 · flown by Envoy	6h 35m	63%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON