Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1221 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1221 MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1206 MKE 18:45 → ATL 22:00 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1221 Delta Flight history →	MKE 05:45	ATL 08:46	6%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 1236 Delta Flight history →	MKE 06:50	ATL 09:57	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 2999 Delta Flight history →	MKE 10:11	ATL 13:14	10%	3%	0.7%	95%
DL 1151 Delta Flight history →	MKE 12:58	ATL 16:07	13%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 2152 Delta Flight history →	MKE 16:14	ATL 19:25	18%	7%	0.8%	87%
DL 1206 Delta Flight history →	MKE 18:45	ATL 22:00	19%	8%	0.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON