tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2258 at 10:15, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2258 Southwest MKE 10:15 AUS 13:13 14% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Chicago ORD 07:00 → AUS 09:56UA 1336 4h 56m 92% 83%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 40m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → MKE 06:20 → ORD 07:30UA 5896 · flown by SkyWest 1h 31m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 5h 39m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 7h 04m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:09 → IAH 11:19UA 5536 · flown by SkyWest 3h 01m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa 7h 20m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → MKE 05:01 → ORD 06:00AA 6261 · flown by SkyWest 2h 07m Chicago ORD 08:07 → AUS 10:58AA 1121 5h 57m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 3h 23m Detroit DTW 12:53 → AUS 14:55DL 1012 7h 44m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 7h 50m 94% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:09 → IAH 11:19UA 5536 · flown by SkyWest 46m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 5h 03m 67% 52%
AmericanDetails → MKE 17:49 → DFW 20:35AA 869 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:35 → AUS 22:39AA 972 4h 50m 65% 33%
UnitedDetails → MKE 17:29 → ORD 18:40UA 5648 · flown by SkyWest 1h 18m Chicago ORD 19:58 → AUS 22:54UA 312 5h 25m 67% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON