Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1525 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1525 MKE 08:05 → DCA 11:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3048 MKE 17:05 → DCA 20:12 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1525 Southwest	MKE 08:05	DCA 11:12	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 5646 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 06:00	DCA 09:11	11%	4%	1.8%	84%
AA 5637 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 17:22	DCA 20:45	29%	11%	3.0%	63%
WN 3048 Southwest	MKE 17:05	DCA 20:12	31%	10%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON