Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1536 at 05:21 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 1536 MKE 05:21 → DEN 06:57 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3051 MKE 18:04 → DEN 19:41 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1536 Southwest	MKE 05:21	DEN 06:57	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 5501 SkyWest	MKE 10:37	DEN 12:19	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1086 Southwest	MKE 11:00	DEN 12:37	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 6028 SkyWest	MKE 08:43	DEN 10:25	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1969 United	MKE 14:43	DEN 16:34	29%	10%	0.7%	no record
OO 5344 SkyWest	MKE 17:49	DEN 19:31	38%	13%	0.9%	no record
WN 3051 Southwest	MKE 18:04	DEN 19:41	41%	11%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON