Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2621 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2621 MKE 07:21 → DFW 10:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 869 MKE 17:49 → DFW 20:35 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2621 American Flight history →	MKE 07:21	DFW 10:00	16%	5%	1.1%	82%
AA 2581 American Flight history →	MKE 12:28	DFW 15:04	25%	8%	1.0%	72%
AA 869 American Flight history →	MKE 17:49	DFW 20:35	35%	11%	1.5%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON