Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5625 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 5625 MKE 06:00 → LGA 09:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest YX 5612 MKE 17:41 → LGA 21:09 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5625 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 06:00	LGA 09:15	6%	3%	1.2%	89%
DL 5613 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 13:18	LGA 16:46	16%	7%	1.8%	44%
YX 5612 Republic	MKE 17:41	LGA 21:09	21%	8%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON