tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 574 at 09:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 574 Southwest MKE 09:45 MCI 11:27 5% 2% 1.4% no record
WN 1576 Southwest MKE 18:05 MCI 19:48 21% 7% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 5h 26m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741 6h 13m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 5h 23m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716 1h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 57m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 6h 19m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → MKE 05:01 → ORD 06:00AA 6261 · flown by SkyWest 3h 56m Chicago ORD 09:56 → MCI 11:31AA 6215 · flown by SkyWest 6h 30m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → MKE 07:01 → CLT 10:07AA 2866 1h 21m Charlotte CLT 11:28 → MCI 13:00AA 3233 5h 59m 91% 72%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → MCI 18:55DL 1470 5h 57m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:09 → IAH 11:19UA 5536 · flown by SkyWest 46m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 6h 06m 67% 57%
DeltaDetails → MKE 16:47 → DTW 18:59DL 1343 50m Detroit DTW 19:49 → MCI 20:49DL 1321 4h 02m 70% 53%
UnitedDetails → MKE 18:35 → ORD 19:34UA 5420 · flown by SkyWest 53m Chicago ORD 20:27 → MCI 22:02UA 1884 3h 27m 23% 9%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON