Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3055 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3055 MKE 05:00 → MCO 08:47 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2144 MKE 17:00 → MCO 20:47 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3055 Southwest	MKE 05:00	MCO 08:47	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3399 Southwest	MKE 09:10	MCO 12:58	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 2834 Frontier Flight history →	MKE 10:04	MCO 13:59	20%	7%	1.7%	82%
WN 3613 Southwest	MKE 21:15	MCO 01:02	23%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 2144 Southwest	MKE 17:00	MCO 20:47	33%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON