Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4705 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4705 Southwest	MKE 05:55	MDW 06:46	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 766 Southwest	MKE 18:49	MDW 19:49	37%	12%	3.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 11m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	5h 35m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 04m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	MKE 16:14 → ATL 19:25DL 2152	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 01m	92%	67%
Delta Details →	MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	6h 10m	98%	58%
Delta Details →	MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor	2h 29m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	5h 07m	90%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON