Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 4074 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–21%.

Safest bet that day OO 4074 MKE 06:26 → MSP 07:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3821 MKE 18:54 → MSP 20:18 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4074 SkyWest	MKE 06:26	MSP 07:50	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 1781 Delta	MKE 10:56	MSP 12:15	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 3934 SkyWest	MKE 08:13	MSP 09:42	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 561 Delta Flight history →	MKE 12:07	MSP 13:26	15%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 2006 Delta Flight history →	MKE 15:59	MSP 17:21	20%	6%	0.7%	76%
OO 3821 SkyWest	MKE 18:54	MSP 20:18	21%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON