Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 6261 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 46–57%.

Safest bet that day AA 6261 MKE 05:01 → ORD 06:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest UA 5648 MKE 17:29 → ORD 18:40 · 57% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6261 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:01	ORD 06:00	8%	5%	1.4%	69%
UA 5799 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:00	ORD 05:59	9%	5%	1.4%	81%
UA 5896 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 06:20	ORD 07:30	18%	5%	1.4%	89%
AA 6479 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:30	ORD 08:29	19%	6%	1.4%	70%
UA 5402 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:50	ORD 10:00	20%	7%	1.5%	74%
OO 4993 SkyWest	MKE 08:32	ORD 09:31	21%	7%	1.5%	no record
UA 4803 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:50	ORD 09:00	22%	6%	1.6%	78%
MQ 4018 Envoy	MKE 11:34	ORD 12:34	25%	6%	2.5%	no record
UA 4740 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 12:05	ORD 13:04	34%	12%	2.2%	69%
MQ 4035 Envoy	MKE 14:48	ORD 15:48	39%	16%	4.6%	no record
OO 4990 SkyWest	MKE 13:15	ORD 14:14	39%	15%	3.7%	no record
UA 5640 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 14:18	ORD 15:17	40%	19%	4.6%	65%
MQ 4096 Envoy	MKE 20:15	ORD 21:16	46%	18%	7.0%	no record
UA 5420 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 18:35	ORD 19:34	52%	22%	7.6%	73%worse than usual
UA 5648 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 17:29	ORD 18:40	57%	22%	6.6%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON