Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 22–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3064 MKE 10:05 → SAN 12:18 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3783 MKE 19:34 → SAN 22:09 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3064 Southwest	MKE 10:05	SAN 12:18	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 8888 Delta	MKE 20:02	SAN 22:19	29%	11%	1.2%	no record
DL 8887 Delta	MKE 20:32	SAN 22:49	30%	12%	1.3%	no record
UA 3783 United	MKE 19:34	SAN 22:09	30%	12%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	MKE 17:22 → PHX 19:08AA 899	1h 12m Phoenix	PHX 20:20 → SAN 21:34AA 559	6h 12m	78%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON