tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 507 at 14:59, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 507 Alaska Flight history → MKE 14:59 SEA 17:24 24% 4% 0.9% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 11h 05m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Detroit DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728 9h 18m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Chicago ORD 07:00 → SEA 09:40UA 341 6h 40m 92% 76%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 7h 49m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561 1h 49m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 6h 53m 93% 72%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 10h 54m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → MKE 06:20 → ORD 07:30UA 5896 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Chicago ORD 08:45 → SEA 11:38UA 2099 7h 18m 92% 70%
DeltaDetails → MKE 15:59 → MSP 17:21DL 2006 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881 6h 49m 93% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor 1h 08m Detroit DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944 7h 20m 69% 52%
UnitedDetails → MKE 14:18 → ORD 15:17UA 5640 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Chicago ORD 16:20 → SEA 19:06UA 1801 6h 48m 62% 28%
UnitedDetails → MKE 17:29 → ORD 18:40UA 5648 · flown by SkyWest 1h 27m Chicago ORD 20:07 → SEA 22:28UA 2211 6h 59m 73% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON