tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3065 at 07:56 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3065 Southwest MKE 07:56 STL 09:24 9% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 1684 Southwest MKE 17:50 STL 19:19 33% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 5h 54m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 32m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → MKE 05:01 → ORD 06:00AA 6261 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Chicago ORD 08:52 → STL 10:16AA 2818 5h 15m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561 1h 45m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 4h 43m 91% 75%
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m Chicago ORD 09:15 → STL 10:36UA 4613 · flown by GoJet 5h 36m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 15:16 → STL 16:06DL 543 5h 55m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 19:14 → STL 20:04DL 2833 7h 06m 100% 72%
AmericanDetails → MKE 07:30 → ORD 08:29AA 6479 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Chicago ORD 11:44 → STL 13:05AA 6355 · flown by SkyWest 5h 35m 100% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MKE 18:35 → ORD 19:34UA 5420 · flown by SkyWest 1h 56m Chicago ORD 21:30 → STL 22:51UA 4576 · flown by GoJet 4h 16m 64% 31%
UnitedDetails → MKE 14:18 → ORD 15:17UA 5640 · flown by SkyWest 54m Chicago ORD 16:11 → STL 17:32UA 4416 · flown by GoJet 3h 14m 54% 27%
UnitedDetails → MKE 17:29 → ORD 18:40UA 5648 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Chicago ORD 19:52 → STL 21:11UA 8125 3h 42m 58% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON