tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1413 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1413 United MRY 05:07 DEN 08:40 6% 3% 1.2% no record
UA 4713 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → MRY 12:29 DEN 16:19 27% 12% 0.9% 91%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Monterey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MRY 07:02 → LAX 08:37UA 4717 · flown by SkyWest 2h 18m Los Angeles LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061 6h 25m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 18:45 → DEN 22:15UA 2610 7h 21m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 7h 35m 96% 61%
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:44 → DFW 18:27AA 2879 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:29 → DEN 21:32AA 577 7h 48m 90% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON