Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 2879 at 12:44, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2879 American Flight history →	MRY 12:44	DFW 18:27	34%	10%	1.5%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Monterey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MRY 05:59 → PHX 07:58AA 6348 · flown by SkyWest	2h 33m Phoenix	PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284	7h 11m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	MRY 06:00 → SAN 07:34AS 3384 · flown by SkyWest	2h 18m San Diego	SAN 09:52 → DFW 15:13AS 545	7h 13m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	MRY 14:39 → SAN 16:16AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest	1h 34m San Diego	SAN 17:50 → DFW 22:53AS 689	6h 14m	91%	64%
American Details →	MRY 12:40 → PHX 14:52AA 3527 · flown by Envoy	3h 50m Phoenix	PHX 18:42 → DFW 23:16AA 556	8h 36m	100%	60%
United Details →	MRY 12:29 → DEN 16:19UA 4713 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	7h 30m	95%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m San Francisco	SFO 10:25 → DFW 16:08UA 2842	6h 08m	67%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON