Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 6348 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 6348 MRY 05:59 → PHX 07:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest OO 4974 MRY 16:04 → PHX 18:04 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6348 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 05:59	PHX 07:58	9%	5%	1.9%	80%
AA 3527 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MRY 12:40	PHX 14:52	21%	5%	2.0%	94%worse than usual
OO 4974 SkyWest	MRY 16:04	PHX 18:04	24%	12%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON