tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AS 3384 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3384 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → MRY 06:00 SAN 07:34 14% 8% 7.1% 91%
AS 3346 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → MRY 14:39 SAN 16:16 29% 11% 3.1% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MRY 05:59 → PHX 07:58AA 6348 · flown by SkyWest 2h 42m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → SAN 12:06AA 2122 6h 07m 100% 69%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 12:21 → SAN 14:08UA 1257 6h 08m 96% 63%
UnitedDetails → MRY 07:02 → LAX 08:37UA 4717 · flown by SkyWest 1h 55m Los Angeles LAX 10:32 → SAN 11:29UA 1068 4h 27m 97% 63%
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:40 → PHX 14:52AA 3527 · flown by Envoy 2h 09m Phoenix PHX 17:01 → SAN 18:27AA 480 5h 47m 100% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest 52m Los Angeles LAX 16:27 → SAN 17:24UA 582 3h 30m 74% 48%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → SAN 11:51UA 2177 3h 51m 59% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON