tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, QX 2294 at 17:28, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
QX 2294 Horizon MRY 17:28 SEA 19:48 33% 7% 2.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MRY 05:59 → PHX 07:58AA 6348 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Phoenix PHX 10:30 → SEA 13:41AA 2208 7h 42m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest 3h 31m Los Angeles LAX 19:06 → SEA 21:59UA 684 8h 05m 100% 62%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m San Francisco SFO 12:12 → SEA 14:32UA 2744 6h 32m 96% 57%
AlaskaDetails → MRY 06:00 → SAN 07:34AS 3384 · flown by SkyWest 3h 38m San Diego SAN 11:12 → SEA 14:01AS 1366 8h 01m 99% 56%
AlaskaDetails → MRY 14:39 → SAN 16:16AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest 3h 11m San Diego SAN 19:27 → SEA 22:14AS 1373 7h 35m 98% 54%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → MRY 14:39 → SAN 16:16AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m San Diego SAN 17:20 → SEA 20:08AS 692 5h 29m 74% 35%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m San Francisco SFO 10:04 → SEA 12:11UA 500 4h 11m 60% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON