tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4391 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4391 Republic MSN 08:22 BOS 11:58 7% 3% 0.8% no record
YX 5849 Republic MSN 15:15 BOS 18:52 17% 6% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSN 04:59 → ORD 06:03UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest 1h 46m Chicago ORD 07:49 → BOS 11:17UA 659 5h 18m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855 5h 57m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:40 → ORD 07:42UA 2137 1h 21m Chicago ORD 09:03 → BOS 12:24UA 1367 4h 44m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSN 08:52 → MSP 10:10DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558 6h 58m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:29 → EWR 09:50UA 3482 · flown by Republic 1h 32m Newark EWR 11:22 → BOS 12:33UA 1669 5h 04m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSN 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 2599 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865 7h 20m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → MSN 07:00 → CLT 10:16AA 1002 1h 04m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → BOS 13:32AA 885 5h 32m 91% 74%
AmericanDetails → MSN 06:57 → LGA 10:25AA 4490 · flown by Republic 1h 04m New York LGA 11:29 → BOS 12:37AA 1571 4h 40m 93% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MSN 15:10 → LGA 18:29DL 5033 · flown by Endeavor 1h 31m New York LGA 20:00 → BOS 21:14DL 5800 · flown by Republic 5h 04m 73% 52%
UnitedDetails → MSN 17:45 → ORD 19:00UA 4603 · flown by GoJet 1h 14m Chicago ORD 20:14 → BOS 23:42UA 1365 4h 57m 73% 33%
AmericanDetails → MSN 15:26 → ORD 16:30AA 4038 · flown by Envoy 48m Chicago ORD 17:18 → BOS 20:42AA 407 4h 16m 51% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON