Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5927 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day OO 5927 MSN 05:06 → DEN 06:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5485 MSN 17:53 → DEN 19:25 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5927 SkyWest	MSN 05:06	DEN 06:38	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2360 United Flight history →	MSN 08:50	DEN 10:20	11%	4%	0.7%	88%
UA 1184 United	MSN 14:35	DEN 16:27	26%	11%	0.8%	no record
F9 4061 Frontier Flight history →	MSN 19:55	DEN 21:31	26%	9%	1.4%	70%
OO 5485 SkyWest	MSN 17:53	DEN 19:25	30%	10%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON