Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 797 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 797 MSN 07:09 → DFW 09:37 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 1660 MSN 17:49 → DFW 20:15 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 797 American Flight history →	MSN 07:09	DFW 09:37	16%	7%	1.0%	77%
AA 1141 American	MSN 11:33	DFW 14:02	22%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 1660 American	MSN 17:49	DFW 20:15	32%	11%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON