tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 4765 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record MSN 07:00 DTW 09:25 14% 7% 6.5% 86%
DL 5214 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record MSN 18:32 DTW 20:58 26% 14% 0.9% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSN 08:52 → MSP 10:10DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → DTW 15:39DL 1519 5h 47m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240 6h 08m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → MSN 06:57 → LGA 10:25AA 4490 · flown by Republic 1h 08m New York LGA 11:33 → DTW 13:39AA 4339 · flown by Republic 5h 42m 93% 81%
AmericanDetails → MSN 09:39 → ORD 10:43AA 3923 · flown by Envoy 2h 12m Chicago ORD 12:55 → DTW 15:18AA 3980 · flown by Envoy 4h 39m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:40 → ORD 07:42UA 2137 3h 08m Chicago ORD 10:50 → DTW 13:27UA 5756 · flown by SkyWest 5h 47m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSN 12:03 → MSP 13:33DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest 2h 42m Minneapolis MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476 5h 56m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSN 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 2599 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940 6h 59m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → MSN 11:07 → ATL 14:13DL 2681 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067 7h 07m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSN 17:45 → ORD 19:00UA 4603 · flown by GoJet 1h 09m Chicago ORD 20:09 → DTW 22:29UA 768 3h 44m 70% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON