Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3482 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 06:29	EWR 09:50	5%	3%	1.9%	92%
UA 3675 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 10:53	EWR 14:13	14%	5%	2.4%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSN 04:59 → ORD 06:03UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest	1h 42m Chicago	ORD 07:45 → EWR 10:46UA 1273	4h 47m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 33m	96%	79%
United Details →	MSN 06:40 → ORD 07:42UA 2137	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856	6h 37m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	MSN 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 2599	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	6h 58m	97%	64%
Delta Details →	MSN 17:50 → MSP 19:07DL 5480 · flown by Endeavor	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	5h 06m	87%	63%
Delta Details →	MSN 18:29 → DTW 20:53DL 5214 · flown by Endeavor	47m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609	3h 56m	84%	61%
Delta Details →	MSN 11:07 → ATL 14:13DL 2681	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	5h 47m	95%	59%
United Details →	MSN 08:50 → DEN 10:20UA 2360	1h 19m Denver	DEN 11:39 → EWR 17:31UA 1233	7h 41m	94%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSN 15:26 → ORD 16:31AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 17:36 → EWR 21:00AA 3253	4h 34m	71%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON