Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3166 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 3166 MSN 05:58 → MSP 07:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5480 MSN 17:50 → MSP 19:07 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3166 Delta	MSN 05:58	MSP 07:11	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 4103 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 08:52	MSP 10:10	9%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 4102 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:03	MSP 13:33	11%	4%	0.7%	85%
9E 5174 Endeavor	MSN 14:43	MSP 16:01	12%	5%	1.3%	no record
DL 5480 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSN 17:50	MSP 19:07	16%	6%	1.4%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON