Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3819 at 05:03 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–42%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3819 MSN 05:03 → ORD 06:07 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5586 MSN 18:37 → ORD 19:41 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3819 Envoy	MSN 05:03	ORD 06:07	8%	4%	1.5%	no record
UA 5902 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 04:59	ORD 06:03	10%	6%	1.8%	89%
MQ 4216 Envoy	MSN 07:10	ORD 08:14	12%	4%	1.3%	no record
UA 2137 United Flight history →	MSN 06:40	ORD 07:42	13%	6%	1.0%	80%
AA 3923 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 09:39	ORD 10:43	14%	4%	1.7%	79%
UA 394 United	MSN 08:11	ORD 09:14	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 6256 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:55	ORD 13:59	32%	10%	2.9%	82%worse than usual
UA 5383 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:40	ORD 13:44	34%	11%	2.9%	70%
UA 1400 United	MSN 14:46	ORD 15:49	37%	17%	3.3%	no record
AA 3748 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 20:03	ORD 21:07	37%	16%	7.0%	69%
AA 4038 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 15:26	ORD 16:30	38%	14%	5.6%	41%
UA 1851 United	MSN 16:08	ORD 17:26	39%	19%	4.0%	no record
OO 5586 SkyWest	MSN 18:37	ORD 19:41	42%	17%	8.1%	no record
UA 4603 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	MSN 17:45	ORD 19:00	41%	18%	5.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON