tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 08:50, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1351 American MSN 14:46 PHX 16:28 28% 7% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSN 08:52 → MSP 10:10DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 5h 54m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 15m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → MSN 04:59 → ORD 06:03UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Chicago ORD 09:02 → PHX 11:03UA 2225 8h 04m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:29 → EWR 09:50UA 3482 · flown by Republic 3h 12m Newark EWR 13:02 → PHX 15:15UA 370 10h 46m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → MSN 12:03 → MSP 13:33DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 6h 06m 93% 72%
AmericanDetails → MSN 07:00 → CLT 10:16AA 1002 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 13:06 → PHX 14:39AA 1044 9h 39m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → MSN 08:50 → DEN 10:20UA 2360 3h 08m Denver DEN 13:28 → PHX 14:25UA 631 7h 35m 99% 68%
AmericanDetails → MSN 07:09 → DFW 09:37AA 797 2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → PHX 13:05AA 336 7h 56m 94% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → MSN 19:55 → DEN 21:31F9 4061 1h 05m Denver DEN 22:36 → PHX 23:32F9 4753 5h 37m 75% 42%
AmericanDetails → MSN 12:55 → ORD 13:59AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest 1h 23m Chicago ORD 15:22 → PHX 17:05AA 2624 6h 10m 67% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON