Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, MQ 3677 at 13:25, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3677 Envoy	MSO 13:25	DFW 17:44	21%	6%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	1h 21m Denver	DEN 09:32 → DFW 12:31UA 1350	5h 26m	96%	80%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Denver	DEN 15:42 → DFW 18:46UA 2230	7h 10m	100%	66%
Alaska Details →	MSO 15:49 → SEA 16:20AS 660	1h 38m Seattle	SEA 17:58 → DFW 23:48AS 542	6h 59m	93%	63%
Delta Details →	MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796	7h 08m	99%	59%
United Details →	MSO 14:37 → DEN 16:42UA 1436	2h 11m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	6h 22m	87%	50%
United Details →	MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673	9h 02m	81%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON