tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 36% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907 2h 02m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 8h 28m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 1h 51m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 29m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSO 15:28 → MSP 19:05DL 362 2h 54m Minneapolis MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53DL 2103 9h 25m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Denver DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195 7h 39m 100% 69%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 15:49 → SEA 16:20AS 660 3h 55m Seattle SEA 20:15 → LAX 23:06AS 63 8h 17m 100% 63%
UnitedDetails → MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest 3h 57m San Francisco SFO 21:47 → LAX 23:20UA 1079 8h 01m 100% 62%
DeltaDetails → MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 5h 52m 98% 54%
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:37 → DEN 16:42UA 1436 3h 17m Denver DEN 19:59 → LAX 21:29UA 1460 7h 52m 92% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m San Francisco SFO 18:56 → LAX 20:35UA 1799 5h 16m 71% 49%
UnitedDetails → MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636 1h 05m Chicago ORD 18:10 → LAX 20:40UA 1967 9h 06m 71% 32%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 15:49 → SEA 16:20AS 660 50m Seattle SEA 17:10 → LAX 19:49AS 1390 5h 00m 36% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON