tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2907 Delta Flight history → MSO 05:55 MSP 09:28 8% 5% 0.6% 92%
DL 362 Delta Flight history → MSO 15:28 MSP 19:05 14% 6% 0.7% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 1h 29m Denver DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397 5h 35m 97% 85%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 15:49 → SEA 16:20AS 660 2h 20m Seattle SEA 18:40 → MSP 23:55AS 527 7h 06m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Denver DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470 7h 10m 100% 69%
DeltaDetails → MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 2h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935 6h 39m 98% 67%
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:37 → DEN 16:42UA 1436 2h 03m Denver DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076 6h 13m 86% 56%
UnitedDetails → MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636 2h 52m Chicago ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005 8h 07m 81% 37%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 54m Denver DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732 5h 10m 68% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON