Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 35–39% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 636 United Flight history →	MSO 12:34	ORD 17:05	35%	21%	1.6%	84%worse than usual
MQ 3487 Envoy	MSO 12:51	ORD 17:06	39%	17%	1.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	1h 24m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	6h 10m	97%	76%
Alaska Details →	MSO 19:59 → SEA 20:33AS 2138 · flown by Horizon	3h 08m Seattle	SEA 23:41 → ORD 05:41 +1AS 285	8h 42m	100%	69%
Alaska Details →	MSO 15:49 → SEA 16:20AS 660	1h 28m Seattle	SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538	7h 10m	90%	59%
United Details →	MSO 14:37 → DEN 16:42UA 1436	3h 54m Denver	DEN 20:36 → ORD 00:03 +1UA 377	8h 26m	94%	55%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	1h 52m Denver	DEN 14:40 → ORD 18:19UA 2426	6h 43m	100%	50%
Delta Details →	MSO 15:28 → MSP 19:05DL 362	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → ORD 21:52DL 1563	5h 24m	89%	50%
Delta Details →	MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	2h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413	7h 14m	98%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest	59m San Francisco	SFO 18:49 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1958	7h 40m	68%	48%
United Details →	MSO 14:37 → DEN 16:42UA 1436	1h 08m Denver	DEN 17:50 → ORD 21:31UA 1411	5h 54m	72%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON