Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 354 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Safest bet that day AS 354 MSO 07:20 → SEA 07:50 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3333 MSO 14:12 → SEA 14:52 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 354 Alaska	MSO 07:20	SEA 07:50	19%	5%	1.1%	no record
AS 660 Alaska Flight history →	MSO 15:49	SEA 16:20	35%	6%	1.3%	82%worse than usual
OO 3333 SkyWest	MSO 14:12	SEA 14:52	35%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON