tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 5417 at 16:19, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5417 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSO 16:19 SFO 17:50 30% 17% 1.0% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 3h 10m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 7h 59m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907 1h 32m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 8h 14m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → MSO 15:28 → MSP 19:05DL 362 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089 9h 18m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 7h 54m 100% 66%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 15:49 → SEA 16:20AS 660 3h 40m Seattle SEA 20:00 → SFO 22:09AS 619 7h 20m 99% 51%
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:37 → DEN 16:42UA 1436 2h 43m Denver DEN 19:25 → SFO 21:11UA 1389 7h 34m 90% 46%
UnitedDetails → MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636 1h 15m Chicago ORD 18:20 → SFO 21:18UA 2179 9h 44m 78% 33%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:37 → DEN 16:42UA 1436 1h 12m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 6h 03m 74% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON