tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 730 at 18:11, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 730 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:11 ABQ 19:55 20% 6% 0.6% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:25 → DEN 06:33UA 2041 1h 39m Denver DEN 08:12 → ABQ 09:38UA 1733 5h 13m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 1h 34m Houston IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa 6h 52m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109 8h 05m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894 1h 30m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → ABQ 13:11AA 3319 7h 52m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 1h 37m Los Angeles LAX 15:00 → ABQ 18:07DL 4091 · flown by SkyWest 7h 37m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:33AA 1395 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:41 → ABQ 11:34AA 3586 · flown by Envoy 6h 34m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 3h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 7h 43m 99% 75%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387 1h 52m Seattle SEA 09:50 → ABQ 13:53AS 327 8h 50m 98% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON